Thursday, April 05, 2012

Alberta Votes Day 11: A Wild Wave Sweeps Across Alberta

Dear Wildrose Party candidates,

It's time to book a return ticket from Vegas:

While the Wildrose lead ranges from 7 to 17 points on these polls, the trend is clear on all three. Here's a graph of Alberta polling in 2012, giving pre-writ polls a 2-week half-life, and shrinking that to 2 days within the writ period:

At this point, seat projections are going to be about as accurate as Danielle Smith's platform costing. Using the 2008 election as the baseline doesn't make a lot of sense when the Wildrose Party was a completely different entity, unable to crack double digits in most ridings. Toss in the 4-way splits in Edmonton, and it's hard to get a sense of what the popular vote translates to.

That said, the end result of a double digit Wildrose lead is self-evident. Every poll shows them well ahead in rural Alberta and, thanks to our possibly-soon-to-be-former PC overlords, the electoral map favours rural ridings.

That's not to say the outcome is inevitable. Smith's lead will draw attention to her positions, platform, and candidates. But the best case scenario for the PCs at this point is eeking out a win, a far cry from less than two months ago when Redford's closest advisers let it be known the "current seat total of 67 is merely a base from which to build an even bigger majority".



  • My prediction of an NDP official opposition might come to pass, but in a much different way.

    By Blogger Robert Vollman, at 12:28 PM  

  • So are there people running for WRP that have experience in government (asked by an ignorant BCer)?

    By Anonymous Jim R, at 1:19 PM  

  • Jim, as far as I know, the only ones with that experience are 2 of the current Wildrose MLAs, both of whom used to be PCs.

    Unless you count local government, in which case they are a few mayors and councillors, etc.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 2:07 PM  

  • I'd actually like to see a proper analysis of the Wildrose candidates background but, as of yet, the media has been slow on this.

    I took a look at their candidate list, and there are definitely a couple school board trustees and municipal politicians on there. Plus, Bruce McAllister who's a former TV host and Mike Blanchard, whose talk radio show I've done a few times.

    Then again, one candidate's largest selling point is that he used to write for the Concordia newspaper. So there's a bit of a mix.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 2:49 PM  

  • And, best of all, a candidate named "Ethane" who works in the oil and gas industry:

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 2:51 PM  

  • In fairness, they aren't the only party with a virtually completely absence of qualified candidates.

    Then again, in fairness, they're the ony party capable of beating the Tories.

    Finally, in fairness, apparently Raj Sherman is re-defining what the word "fair" means anyway.

    By Blogger Robert Vollman, at 2:54 PM  

  • There are three former PC MLAs running for the Wildrose - Calgary--Fish Creek, Airdrie, and Fort McMurray--Wood Buffalo. They're all basically your standard irate moderate PCers who were sidelined/marganlized and went somewhere their talents would be appreciated (Guy Boutilier in Fort McMurray is an old friend of Liberal leader Raj Sherman and actually considered going Liberal before polling showed he'd be crushed). If there is going to be any restraint in the Wildrose cabinet, it will come from those three...

    By Blogger BAJ Visser, at 3:13 PM  

  • Somewhere there are riding-by-riding results for the PC leadership race. I'd wager that if you took Ted Morton's results from 2006 by riding and subtracted his results in 2011 you'd have a robust predictor of relative WRA support.

    By Anonymous hosertohoosier, at 5:20 PM  

  • We use to have just the type of guy who would do that for us, what was his name again ... he was some guy that moved from Canada to Indiana ...

    By Blogger Robert Vollman, at 6:09 PM  

  • I think it will be a nice change to have some "real people" elected rather than the usual bevy of professional politicians, bureaucrats and lawyers.

    By Blogger Way Way Up, at 3:53 AM  

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