Thursday, April 19, 2012

Alberta Election Pool

On Monday, Albertans will go to the polls in what is already being dubbed a "historic" election. The outcome is uncertain, so why not gaze into your crystal ball and enter the Daveberta and CalgaryGrit election pool.

It's simple enough - predict the seat totals for each party and answer 10 bonus questions. Everyone gets 87 points minus one point for each seat you're off per party, plus two points per correct bonus question.

Robert Vollman has generously donated the following political book prize packs (shipping extra, unless we can arrange a pick-up in Calgary or Toronto):

1. The Bill of Rights package: One Canada (Diefenbaker), Memoirs (Trudeau)
2. The Preston Manning package: Thinking Big, The New Canada and Roots of Reform
3. The Jean Chretien package: The Friendly Dictatorship, Straight From the Heart
4. The Federalists package: A Nation Too Good to Lose (Joe Clark), Fighting for Canada (Diane Francis)
5. The Obscure Package: The Betrayal of Canada (Mel Hurtig), Navigating a New World (Lloyd Axworthy)

First choice goes to the overall winner, with the winners of the seat prediction portion and the bonus question portion also winning a book pack. So even if you're an Ontarian like myself with no clue what a "Ted Morton" is, never mind if he'll win his seat, you can skip the bonus questions and still be eligible for the prizes, based on a shot-in-dark seat prediction.

Contest will close as soon as the polls open Monday. Please paste your entry in the comments here or at daveberta, or e-mail your picks in to calgarygrit@gmail.com.


Election Results Questions

Number of MLAs elected by each party (total: 87 MLAs)

Alberta Party:
Liberal:
NDP:
PC:
Wildrose:
Other:


Bonus Question

1. The constituency where the PC candidate will earn their highest percentage of the popular vote:
(2008 results here; candidate list here; top ridings last time: Vermilion-Lloydminster (Lloyd Snelgrove - not running), Battle River-Wainwright (Doug Griffiths), Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville (Ed Stelmach - not running), Bonnyville-Cold Lake (Genia Leskiw), Strathmore-Brooks (Arno Doerksen), Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills (Ray Danyluk))

2. Will PC MLA Ted Morton be re-elected in Chestermere-Rockyview?
(Morton won with 57% of the vote last time, but 308.com projects 22-point Wildrose win)

3. Will Premier Alison Redford be re-elected in Calgary-Elbow?
(Redford beat the Liberals by 3% last election, and 308.com projects her to beat the Wildrose by 3%)

4. Will Liberal Party leader Raj Sherman be re-elected in Edmonton-Meadowlark?
(As a PC, Sherman defeated the Liberals 54% to 30% in 2008)

5. What will the highest vote percentage for the Alberta Party be in a riding? (points if you're within +/- 5%)
(Polls show them under 5% province-wide, but they've targeted a pair of Edmonton constituencies, including the one in Q7)

6. Will either Allan Hunsperger ("gays burn in hell") or Ron Leech ("being white is an advantage") win their seat?
(308.com projects Hunsberger to lose, but has Leech in a virtual dead heat)

7. Who will be elected in Edmonton-Glenora?
(Candidates: Sue Huff AP, Bruce Miller Lib, Ray Martin NDP, Heather Klimchuk PC, Don Koziak WR; 2008 vote: PC 40%, Lib 39%, NDP 15%, WR 2%)

8. Which party leaders will announce plans to resign within 48 hours of the vote?
(Alison Redford PC, Danielle Smith WR, Raj Sherman Lib, Brian Mason NDP, Glenn Taylor AP)

9. How many of the 3 senate positions will the Wildrose Party win?
(They're running 3 candidates, the PCs are running 3 candidates, the Greens have 1 candidate, and there are 6 independents; full list here)

10. Who will get more votes - Libs or NDP?
(current polls have them effectively tied)

Labels: , , , , , , ,

26 Comments:

  • Always enjoy these, Dan!

    My seat prediction is thus, and it's helpful I run my own projections xD

    52 Wildrose
    30 Progressive Conservatives
    3 New Democrats
    2 Liberals

    Bonus questions:

    1. Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater

    2. No, he'll lose by about 15-20%

    3. Yes, but just barely.

    4. No, he'll lose Meadowlark to the Wildrosers.

    5. West Yellowhead, where Glenn Taylor is running, about 10-15%.

    6. Hunsperger will lose, Leech will win.

    7. Ray Martin, NDP

    8. Alison Redford AND Raj Sherman

    9. Two of three. The third will elect the Green candidate.

    10. Liberals will get more votes because of Calgary.

    By Blogger Volkov, at 7:03 PM  

  • WRP - 47
    PC - 35
    NDP - 5

    1 - Athabasca-Stu-Red
    Second guess: Lac La Biche
    Third guess: Lacombe

    2 - No.

    3 - Yes.

    4 - No.

    5 - Yellowhead. (They will finish second with 20%-25%)

    6 - No and No (can you add in the riding names)

    7 - The PC Candidate, whoever it is.

    8 - Sherman. That is all.

    9 - 2

    10 - NDP

    By Blogger ridingBYriding, at 7:16 PM  

  • More:

    Morton will lose by a sizable margin.
    Redford will win comfortably.
    Meadowlark is going PC, Sherman finishes 3rd
    Redford *might* resign, but I'm not feeling it. Maybe in 2013
    The third Senator will be PC
    Liberals will end 2-3 points behind the NDP

    By Blogger ridingBYriding, at 7:20 PM  

  • WRA: 45
    PC: 34
    NDP: 3
    L: 4
    AP: 1

    1) Calgary-Elbow
    2) No
    3) Yes
    4) Yes
    5) 40%
    6) Hunsperger: No, Leech: Yes
    7) Ray Martin
    8) Raj Sherman, Brian Mason
    9) 3
    10) NDP

    By Blogger Timothy Friesen, at 10:44 PM  

  • WR 48
    PC 33
    LIB 3
    ND 3

    1. Edmonton South-West
    2. Yes
    3. Yes
    4. Yes
    5. 8%
    6. No
    7. PC
    8. None
    9. 2
    10. Lib

    By Blogger UWHabs, at 10:52 PM  

  • Disclaimer: I know very little about Alberta politics.

    To predict these numbers, I took the Abacus poll data, dialed back their predictions of a PC-Wild Rose swing to 47% (which cuts the Wild Rose lead to about 7 points). I then made riding predictions based on the idea that ridings where the Tory + Wild Rose vote was higher (ie. more conservative ridings. I wanted to use the decline in support for Ted Morton between 2006 and 2011 but couldn't find the data), the swing to the Wild Rose party would be higher. This is complete napkin-math, so I'm prepared to be embarrassed.

    My predictions are:
    Wild Rose: 51
    PC: 30
    NDP: 2
    ...Which seems to fit what I'd expect, given the rural riding bias.

    1. The best PC constituency will be... Edmonton-Riverview - yep, Kevin Taft's old riding.

    2. Ted Morton will lose badly (by over 10 points).

    3. My model has her losing narrowly, but I figure being premier will save Redford's bacon. Redford wins.

    4. Raj Sherman will lose. The PC's will take Edmonton-Meadowlark.

    5. The Alberta Party will win 10% in West Yellowhead, their best riding.

    6. Leech will win in Montrose, Allan Hunsperger will lose.

    7. Heather Klimchuk, the PC candidate, will win.

    8. Raj Sherman will resign, having lost his seat... hopefully freeing up a spot so a certain blogger - perhaps from Calgary, and also a Liberal - can run for leadership.

    9. Despite winning the election (and the recent poll), the Wild Rose party will win only 1 senate seat.

    10. The Liberals will get more votes (just no seats).

    By Anonymous hosertohoosier, at 11:03 PM  

  • Revision: looks like they created more seats in 2012 (here's hoping they didn't change the boundaries much!).
    Wild Rose: 54
    PC: 31
    NDP: 2

    By Anonymous hosertohoosier, at 11:05 PM  

  • "... hopefully freeing up a spot so a certain blogger - perhaps from Calgary, and also a Liberal - can run for leadership."

    hosertohoosier:

    I think a "cretain blogger" from "the center of the Universe" would make a great Liberal Party of Alberta leader. It is the only blogger that just about convinced me to vote for them last federal election.

    The only problem is that the word Liberal is associated with the Federal LIEberals ... and in Alberta it would take a miracle - yet look at the inroads that Wildrose party made when connecteed with voters on policies that ring true with Alberta voters.

    This "cretain blogger" should consider moving back to Alberta and consider position ... hint, hint, hint.

    By Anonymous Clown Party, at 5:46 AM  

  • WR 42
    PC 41
    ND 4

    1. Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills
    2. Yes
    3. Yes
    4. No
    5. 11
    6. Both
    7. Ray Martin
    8. Sherman, Redford
    9. 1
    10. Libs more votes, NDP more seats

    By Anonymous Marc from soccer, at 9:44 AM  

  • I dunno guys. I feel like 4 years in Toronto opens me up to a swarm of "Just Visiting" attacks...

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 10:18 AM  

  • Alberta Party: 0
    Liberal: 0
    NDP: 2
    PC: 26
    Wildrose: 59
    Other: 0

    1. Edmonton-Whitemud
    2. No
    3. Yes
    4. No
    5. 8
    6. Yes (Leech will win, Hunsperger will lose)
    7. Heather Klimchuk
    8. None
    9. 3
    10. NDP

    By Blogger nbpolitico, at 11:29 AM  

  • Wild Rose 48
    PC 32
    NDP 5
    Liberal 2

    1. Edmonton Mill Creek

    2. No, he's gone.

    3. Yes, but not by much.

    4. Yes.

    5. 55%

    6. Hunsperger will lose, Leech will win.

    7. PC

    8. None of the above.

    9. 2

    10. NDP

    By Anonymous John Keith, at 1:08 PM  

  • Wildrose - 51
    PC - 26
    Liberal - 5
    NDP - 4
    Alberta Party - 1

    Bonus Questions:

    1) Battle River-Wainwright

    2) Morton will lose. And there will be much rejoicing.

    3) Redford will win.

    4) Raj will survive. Barely.

    5) 30%

    6) Hunsperger loses. Leech wins. This erases the joy felt from Morton losing.

    7) Heather Klimchuk

    8) Redford and Sherman. Mason resigns a few months from now.

    9) Wildrose wins all three.

    10) Libs win more votes.

    By Anonymous Glen K, at 2:47 PM  

  • I'm staking out the "Wildrose Worst Case" ground

    PC 47
    WRP 29
    NDP 8
    Lib 3

    1. Strathmore-Brooks
    2. Yes
    3. Yes
    4. Yes
    5. 9.8%
    6. No, neither
    7. NDP
    8. Within 48 hrs? None.
    9. None
    10. NDP

    By Blogger Robert Vollman, at 5:38 PM  

  • Election Results Questions

    Number of MLAs elected by each party (total: 87 MLAs)

    Alberta Party: 0
    Liberal: 12
    NDP: 3
    PC: 35
    Wildrose: 37
    Other: 0

    Bonus Question

    1. The constituency where the PC candidate will earn their highest percentage of the popular vote:
    Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills

    2. Will PC MLA Ted Morton be re-elected in Chestermere-Rockyview?
    No.

    3. Will Premier Alison Redford be re-elected in Calgary-Elbow?
    No.

    4. Will Liberal Party leader Raj Sherman be re-elected in Edmonton-Meadowlark?
    Yes.

    5. What will the highest vote percentage for the Alberta Party be in a riding? (points if you're within +/- 5%)
    25%

    6. Will either Allan Hunsperger ("gays burn in hell") or Ron Leech ("being white is an advantage") win their seat?
    Yes for Leech, no for Hunsperger

    7. Who will be elected in Edmonton-Glenora?
    Miller (Lib)

    8. Which party leaders will announce plans to resign within 48 hours of the vote?
    Redford.

    9. How many of the 3 senate positions will the Wildrose Party win?
    2/3.

    10. Who will get more votes - Libs or NDP?
    Liberal.

    By Anonymous Vincent, at 10:35 PM  

  • 33 Wildrose
    36 Progressive Conservatives
    6 New Democrats
    12 Liberals

    Bonus questions:

    1. Battle River-Wainwright (Doug Griffiths)

    2. No

    3. No

    4. Yes

    5. West Yellowhead 13%

    6. Both will lose

    7. Bruce Miller Lib

    8. Alison Redford

    9. One

    10. Liberals

    By Blogger Martin, at 10:48 AM  

  • My methodology was picking random numbers and tweaking them until they added to 87, so obviously I'm feeling pretty confident in them.

    Wildrose 41
    PC 37
    Liberal 7
    NDP 2

    1. Fort Saskatchewan – Vegreville
    2. Yes
    3. Yes
    4. Yes
    5. 13%
    6. Leech will win. He has the advantage of being white, after all. Hunsberger, while Caucasian, will not win.
    7. PC Heather Klimchuk
    8. None
    9. 1
    10. Liberals

    By Anonymous KC, at 6:09 PM  

  • This comment has been removed by the author.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 11:55 PM  

  • I will disqualify myself if I win, but here's my predictions for the hell of it:

    WR 44
    PC 35
    Lib 4
    NDP 4
    AP 0

    1. Best Riding: Spruce Grove - St. Albert (Horner likely next PC leader too)

    2. No. Morton will lose
    3. Yes. Redford will win
    4. No. Sherman will lose
    5. 17% is the best the Alberta Party will do...my guess it will be Glenn Taylor too, not the Edmonton seats they're targeting
    6. Yes. Leech will win, Hunsperger will lose
    7. NDP takes Glenora. Martin's due
    8. None resign within 48 hours, but all except Smith are gone by the next election
    9. 3 - Wildrose gets a clean sweep, since voters will just vote party lines
    10. NDP with slightly more votes, due to "strategic" vote among Liberals that ironically will lead to a few surprise Wildrose wins.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 11:58 PM  

  • Alberta Party: 0
    Liberal: 2
    NDP: 4
    PC: 37
    Wildrose: 44
    Other: 0

    1. Strathcona-Sherwood Park
    2. No
    3. Yes
    4. No
    5. 9%
    6. No to both
    7. Heather Klimchuk, PC
    8. Raj Sherman and Alison Redford
    9. 2
    10. Liberals

    By Blogger JMiddleton, at 12:21 AM  

  • Here is my go:

    Wildrose: 43
    PC: 37
    NDP: 4
    Liberal: 3

    1. Edmonton South-West
    2. No
    3. Yes
    4. No
    5. 15
    6. Both no
    7. Heather Klimchuk
    8. Alison Redford
    9. All 3
    10. NDP

    By Blogger Aman Hayer, at 12:53 AM  

  • 45 Wildrose
    33 Progressive Conservatives
    5 New Democrats
    4 Liberals

    Bonus questions:

    1. Battle River - Wainwright

    2. No

    3. Yes

    4. Yes, barely.

    5. 17%

    6. No.

    7. Martin

    8. Redford.

    9. One

    10. NDP

    By Blogger alkalinecity, at 12:37 PM  

  • Number of MLAs elected by each party (total: 87 MLAs)

    Alberta Party: 0
    Liberal: 2
    NDP: 3
    PC: 57
    Wildrose: 25
    Other: 0


    Bonus Question

    1. The constituency where the PC candidate will earn their highest percentage of the popular vote:
    Doug Horner, Spruce Grove

    2. Will PC MLA Ted Morton be re-elected in Chestermere-Rockyview?
    No

    3. Will Premier Alison Redford be re-elected in Calgary-Elbow?
    Yes

    4. Will Liberal Party leader Raj Sherman be re-elected in Edmonton-Meadowlark?
    No

    5. What will the highest vote percentage for the Alberta Party be in a riding? (points if you're within +/- 5%)
    17%

    6. Will either Allan Hunsperger ("gays burn in hell") or Ron Leech ("being white is an advantage") win their seat?
    No.

    7. Who will be elected in Edmonton-Glenora?
    Heather Klimchuk PC

    8. Which party leaders will announce plans to resign within 48 hours of the vote?
    Raj Sherman Lib, Glenn Taylor AP

    9. How many of the 3 senate positions will the Wildrose Party win?
    1

    10. Who will get more votes - Libs or NDP?
    NDP

    By Anonymous Kyle, at 1:19 PM  

  • My predictions based on 0 scientific evidence and limited knoweledge of Alberta politics

    Alberta Party: 0
    Liberal: 4
    NDP: 4
    PC: 36
    Wildrose: 43
    Other: 0




    1. Battle River-Wainwright (Doug Griffiths),
    2. no
    3. yes

    4. not a chance
    5. 32

    6. one, not both

    7. Heather Klimchuk PC,
    8. None

    9. 3
    10. Libs

    By Blogger Dan-O, at 10:32 AM  

  • Here are my picks:

    Wildrose - 47
    PC - 36
    NDP - 4

    1. Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills
    2. No
    3. No
    4. No
    5. 15
    6. Yes
    7. Heather Klimchuk PC
    8. Raj Sherman, Alison Redford
    9. 2
    10. Libs

    By Anonymous Michael F, at 3:13 PM  

  • What a fantastic pool to enter!

    Wildrose: 46
    PC: 37
    NDP: 3
    Liberal: 1

    Bonus
    1. Bonnyville-Cold Lake
    2. No
    3. Yes
    4. No
    5. 15%
    6. Neither
    7. Bruce Miller
    8. PC, Lib
    9. 2
    10. More votes - Lib

    By Blogger Krysta, at 5:36 PM  

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