Thursday, November 11, 2010

November Poll Soup: The More Things Change...


With a slew of polls out so far in November, this is a good time to check in on what the pollsters are saying. Not surprisingly, after a ho-hum fall on Parliament Hill, there hasn't been a lot of movement.


Ekos (Nov 3 to Nov 9, n = 1,815 demon dial)
CPC 29.4%
Lib 28.6%
NDP 19.3%
BQ 9.3%
Green 10.7%

Nanos (Nov 1 to Nov 5, n = 1,017 phone)
CPC 37.1%
Lib 31.6%
NDP 15.4%
BQ 10.8%
Green 5.2%

Ipsos Reid (Nov 2 to Nov 4, n = 1,000 phone)
CPC 35%
Lib 29%
NDP 16%
BQ 8%
Green 11%

Abacus (Oct 29 to Nov 1, n = 1,001 online)
CPC 33%
Lib 25%
NDP 21%
BQ 10%
Green 10%
(Given this is a new kid on the bloc, it was an online survey, and the Lib/NDP numbers seem a bit off, I'd be careful when looking at this one)

Decima (Oct 21 to Oct 31, n = 2000 phone)
CPC 33%
Lib 28%
NDP 17%
BQ 9%
Green 10%


RUNNING AVERAGE (change since the end of September in brackets)

CPC: 33.7% (-0.2%)
Lib: 28.7% (-1.0%)
NDP: 16.8% (+2.1%)
BQ: 9.4% (-0.3%)
Green: 9.6% (-0.6%)

Note: the running average is calculated based on pollster accuracy ratings, giving all polls (not just those listed above) a 2 week half life so that "fresher" data is worth more.


The largest change from September has been a jump in support for the NDP but, in reality, this is just a case of the NDP returning to their usual "resting position" after dipping this fall. They're still below the 18% we saw from them back in the spring and would lose seats if an election were held today (updated seat projections to come tomorrow).

Once again, this serves as a great reminder of how little change there has been in the Canadian political landscape since Harper took power in 2006. The Conservatives took that election by 6 points. Since then, Dion proposed a carbon tax, the Liberals got a new leader. Harper played the piano, Harper prorogued Parliament. Each time, the polls moved. The Tories have flirted with majority. The Liberals have pulled ahead by a few points once or twice.

But, slowly and surely, they always seem to drift back to that 6-point Tory lead, with the NDP merrily in the high teens and Quebec firmly in Gilles Duceppe's grip.

In short, we haven't seen a "game changer". Moreover, after seeing Stephen Harper as Prime Minister for 5 years, the electorate hasn't grown any more or less enamoured with the man. Sure, our attitude towards him has changed. Those who dislike Harper now do so more out of frustration than out of fear. But the man is still very much in minority territory.

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7 Comments:

  • Let us see if we can pick the outlier........eenie meenie mienee moe........

    By Anonymous Glenn, at 6:53 PM  

  • I love your little comment about Abacus, but absolutley nothing about the absolutley ridiculous regional numbers for EKOS.

    By Blogger Glenn, at 6:56 PM  

  • The fact that the rival leading contender party can't put up a candidate to beat a minority man like Stephen Harper says more than I want to think about our system.

    Harper's the only PM-like party leader in the running... what's up with that, Liberal and NDP and Green Parties?

    By Anonymous Jacques Beau Verte, at 11:12 AM  

  • The internals on the Abacus poll also don't make sense.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:46 AM  

  • Yeah, the Ekos numbers are definitely off to. Partly due to the 13% being burned on the Greens and other, but it's also out of whack with the resent Ekos numbers.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 12:28 PM  

  • I don't know if you mentioned this or not before but it always seems that Nanos has the Greens much lower than anyone else.

    By Blogger Bailey, at 12:57 PM  

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