Friday, December 30, 2005

Pre-Emptive Strike

Well, this is...interesting. I really don't know what to make of the new Tory ads which are attack ads accusing the Liberals of...going negative. The plan is obviously to counter the near certain Liberal attempt to demonize Harper before it begins which is something the Tories need to do. Does this ad work? I'm undecided.

posted by calgarygrit at 3:32 p.m.

43 Comments:

  • Based on American elections, if you launch attack ads ABOUT attack ads, your own polls drop.

    These ads are like a little hypocrasy pill. Tends to get stuck in the throat.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 3:44 p.m.  

  • Flash and awe baby..

    Martin the tanks are coming, Martin the tanks are here,
    Martin go hide in a little hole.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 3:53 p.m.  

  • Wow, that looked even cheaper than the first set of Tory ads. Half the ad was spent zooming in on Matin's face, another couple of seconds with a single quote (ZOOMING!) and the party's motto. This new ad firm is doing wonders for the Conservatives.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 3:53 p.m.  

  • I don't think its an effective ad for the Tories, but then again so far they have had the worst ads of all the major parties. I think if the Tories want to win the election they should stay positive because I think if they go negative then they just look like more of the same. The only effective negative ad I've seen so far is the NDP Christmas present, and the only Tory ad I like it "Change".

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 3:55 p.m.  

  • Is this actually beig aired or it it sort of a threat in case of a negative campaign? Kinda works but only if they actually can get people to relate to a negative message first.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 3:58 p.m.  

  • I agree with Andrew.

    The Conservatives need to stay positive. I think they would come out worse off in a negative campaign with the Liberals.

    I personally hope this ad never gets aired.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 4:11 p.m.  

  • Ah, Blogistan as focus group and free viral marketers. Wise. And smart.

    The ad itself is pure red meat, perfect for emailing around to friends family and co-workers.

    By Blogger Michael, at 4:14 p.m.  

  • I'm also agnostic about whether the ad will work; it's awfully dark as a set-up to a warning that the Grits will go dark.

    Having said that, the idea is quite clever. If you're entirely certain the Grits will go negative, as Martin always does when his back is to the wall, do you hunker down and take it? Or do you inoculate yourself by telling voters to expect it?

    As for the quality of the ad, I've noticed that most American ads are quite crude and slapped-together. But you sure do remember their message. A lot of feel-good ads -- soft-focus shots of open fields, melodious Celtic bagpipes, crinkly-eyed elders smiling in slow motion -- leave you wondering what precisely you're supposed to be buying.

    One more thing: it's pretty obvious this ad has been in the can since before the writ drop. (Note that the Globe hed comes from Jane Taber's piece a week before the confidence vote.) If previous campaigns are any indication, everyone probably has a dozen or more ads, on various themes, ready to roll, depending on circumstances.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 4:23 p.m.  

  • The right way to deflect negativity is with dignified humour. The Conservatives should have just called the Liberals out on their weak schoolyard taunting, as Harper has been doing during the campaign.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5:01 p.m.  

  • Having run a number of campaigns and developed ad campaigns these ads are effective on a number of fronts. 1) Prepares the public for a Liberal onslaught of negative ads while pursuing a "stay positive" strategy. 2) The black and white portrayal of liberals and use of colour for conservatives is an effective psychological tool to differentiate the "negative and positive". 3) the black and white should not cost as much and will keep the powder dry and cash available for more ads and ad buys later. 4) Effectively counters the liberal strategy of the past few weeks of keeping the leader (Martin) above the negative by constantly calling for a more civilized campaign and apologies from Harper -- it puts Martin, in no uncertain black and white, at front and center of the impending negative liberal campaign.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5:47 p.m.  

  • Warren likes it, so it must be good...

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 7:25 p.m.  

  • When you’ve been in power for 12 long years, when your party has been named by a judicial investigation into corruption, when scandals continue to engulf your government. What message can you possible take to the people of Canada? On Jan 23 let’s do something positive, vote conservative.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 7:28 p.m.  

  • I really love how Paul Martin's face slowly fades into black.. you almost see his eyes start to glow.

    And "PM plans negative" campaign goes into your face Star Wars style.

    And then the upbeat guitar music tagline.

    BRILLIANT INDEED WARREN.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 7:30 p.m.  

  • People have now heard for a few weeks the mounting scandals and embarassment for the Libs and this commercial will put a face to that. Paul Martin's Liberals will now be associated with corruption--no more blaming Jean Chretien...
    The ad is inexpensive, direct, makes great use of colours and sounds and the visual of Paul Martin as old and tired is super effective.
    It's not Max Headroom but it will work.

    By Blogger NorthBayTrapper, at 7:54 p.m.  

  • I think it will be a very effective ad. In fact when I first watched it I didn't think it was that negative. But I must be right as Kinsella agrees with me LOL.

    http://www.warrenkinsella.com/musings.htm

    Horny Toad

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 8:27 p.m.  

  • I like it! In fact I just made "another" donation. It is time for a change.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 8:59 p.m.  

  • The Liberals should spoof this ad. They can say something warm and rosy and have Stephen Harper go negative in the same ad. They can rightly talk up the fact that they did not go negative.

    An example.

    As Liberals we believe that Canada is a first rate country.

    Stephen Harper believes Canada is "second rate."

    As Liberals we believe that Canada is a shinning example to the rest of the world.

    Stephen Harper believes that "Any country with Canada's insecure smugness and resentment can be dangerous."

    As Liberals will be believe that keeping Canada untited and strong is off the utmost importance. Harper believes that whether Quebec stays within Canada is "secondary" to reducing the power of Federal government.

    Stand up to Canada's detractors vote Liberal

    By Blogger Koby, at 10:39 p.m.  

  • They should spoof Harper and maybe start a real campaign...

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:58 p.m.  

  • Koby:

    Then the Conservatives could counter with:

    Your current government is the subject of a criminal investigation on allegations it leaked privy information so that liberal connected insiders could benefit on your retirement savings.

    Vote Tory.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:59 p.m.  

  • Koby,

    First, I won't claim to represent Harper exactly and with much less authority than you feel comfortable with, but:

    The critique is not that Canada is "second rate", its that in our mindless obsession with "beating the Satanic Yanks" on the measure of the day, we set our standards too low.

    Conservatives believe equally that Canada is a shining example to the world. Most importantly, Canada is a country that can accommodate many groups of people in thriving peace.

    A united Canada does not mean a top-heavy, PMO-focused government that looks something like England. That's fine for an island nation where nothing's more than a hour's flight.

    By Blogger Tarkwell Robotico, at 11:12 p.m.  

  • Keep spinning Chuck

    "Canada appears content to become a SECOND_TIER SOCIALISTIC COUNTRY, boasting ever more loudly about its economy and social services to mask its SECOND-RATE STATUS, led by a second-world strongman appropriately suited for the task.

    Albertans would be fatally ill-advised to view this situation as amusing or benign. [This is sounds very Stump like.] Any country with Canada's INSECURE SMUGNESS and RESENTMENT can be dangerous."

    “Canada is a Northern European welfare state in the worst sense of the term, and very proud of it.”

    Whether Canada survives is "secondary"

    Harper's comments were not aimed at Alberta by the way, just the rest of the country. I think they would go over well in, say, BC and Ontario .

    By Blogger Koby, at 11:42 p.m.  

  • Your example, while factually correct, is an old pull to the past when Mr. Harper was NOT the leader of a political party. It is amazing what you can dredge up if you look in the past... how about "We'll axe the tax (GST)" and other lies from the Liberal Red Book of 1993, and that was while PM the PM was a politician. He has no excuse, unlike Mr. Harper who as a citizen and was speaking as the President of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation and critizing the direction that Canada had been taking since the Liberal Party won power.

    So, lets play dredge up the past... I bet we can bury PM the PM with his own words.

    Oh, and what flag will he wrap himself in today?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:58 p.m.  

  • I'm not sure why anyone puts much stock in Kinsella's take on this. I was reading his blog for a while, but it became just a bit too predictable, tiresome and shrill: a one-track diatribe against Martin. It's become a bit scary in a couple of the most recent posts -- the froth at the mouth is practically oozing off the words on the screen. But then, I suppose he's not known for being civil.

    By Blogger Dale, at 12:08 a.m.  

  • What a kook. Now that is a theory so convoluted as to defy ... I'm not sure what. First, you throw neo-con out there like it is a bad word. I hate to tell you but it only means "new" conservative... I guess you really want to use fascist or nazi but just can't bring yourself to?

    I can't imagine what kind of warped, twisted mind could come up with this drivle. Please, back to the Kennedy assasination with you!

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:19 a.m.  

  • Joe...I'm speechless.

    Mulroney ran up the deficit because of the fiscal situation inherited from Trudeau and the recession. When he left, he left the governemnt with a GDP/debt ratio that allowed for the recovery of the 90's. He accomplished more and attempted more that Paul Martin ever will.
    I agree that his government was sick and old at the end and I didn't like the porkbarrelling. As a Conservative I'm glad the PC's got 3 seats. I hope the same happens to the Liberal Party for the sake of Liberalism in Canada.

    btw imo to LeoPetr...it's all subjective and I respect your opinion, but I found Martin to look old and tired in the photo.

    By Blogger NorthBayTrapper, at 1:51 a.m.  

  • Joe,

    Welcome back, haven't seen or heard from you since Coyne stopped allowing comments.

    I am somewhat dissapointed, such a long diatribe and no mention of the Carlyle group, you must be getting soft.

    Anyway on a couple of points. I too will reserve judgement. I would tend to agree with Anon 3:47 and think they do strike a right chord among "positive" vs. "negative". That being said I am not sure I would take pride in that W. Kinsella thinks they are good.
    As much as I like to see Liberal infighting, I would concur that he has become a bit of a one-trick pony in his contempt for Martin(justified or otherwise).

    As for Koby, I am not sure I would be using Liberals and spoof in the same sentence. The way this current campaign has gone to date it is the Liberals that have become the parody.

    Ken

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 2:42 a.m.  

  • I don't think that any ads that the Conservatives could pull out would be useful at all. They mostly contain bad acting and Steven Harper; if there is one reason to change the channel during a commercial break, it is Steven Harper's forced, and somewhat creppy smile.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 4:27 a.m.  

  • The Tories need to fire their ad people. This is dumb, plain and simple, and the average Canadian will be able to see it for that.

    It's a two-bit attack ad.

    And I even kind of like the Tories this time around.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 6:48 a.m.  

  • The Conservative ads look as though they were made by a community college second year marketing class.

    By Blogger WarBicycle, at 8:28 a.m.  

  • As a formerly undecided voter, the new conservative ad does what it's supposed to do....it tips my vote to the Conservatives.

    Argue all you want but if this formerly undecided voter sees the add as a clear tipping point vehicle then I'm betting other undecideds will move
    their vote to Harper.

    Mission accomplished by the Tory ad-folks.

    Too bad Liberals. Hopefully, many more like me have had enough of the arroganct "entitlements" and are willing to give Harper a shot.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:26 a.m.  

  • This is pretty sharp thinking by the Tories. I think Warren's analysis hits it bang on. It undercuts the Liberal negative campaign (which, let's face it, everybody knows is coming) before it starts.

    Read the Globe's article today about this ad. Could it possibly be any more partisan? It's hilarious when you consider that the Globe first reported about the Liberals planning a negative campaign.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:27 a.m.  

  • Good strategy, me thinks.

    Get this ad out ahead of the Libs' wave of attacks, implanting a filter through which they will be viewed.

    "Hmmm...the Conservatives were right. The Liberals are putting out a lot of negative crap."

    With a single stroke the CPC undermines an entire advertising campaign. It is, as WK says, brilliant.

    Joe...

    Me thinks you've probably been hanging around Rabble for too long; you're seeing "neo-cons" popping out of the woodwork like $20 bills at a hookers' convention in Vegas. You definitely need some time off, sport.

    Yeeeeessshhhh!!!

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:29 a.m.  

  • I wanted to have an opinion on the ad... but I sorta fell asleep in the middle... BORING... at least the NDP ad was creative + kinda funny... then again nobody ever accused SH of being funny.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:33 a.m.  

  • Say what you want about the Cons, the new ad is effective. Harper is laying out policy after policy (which coincidentally is what Martin proposed in his Liberal leadership race). All his policy announcements are more or less at one time Martin comments (same-sex, more mighty military, Arctic presence etc.)

    It's going to be hard for Liberals to fault Harper's policies and now Harper is trying to ensure they don't fault HIM.

    Koby at 839 is the way Liberals should respond.

    As for me I was a big Chretien fan and didn't like the way he was ousted. I also think Harper is Bush-lite and nothing is going to change that opinion. So the ad does nothing to me, but it might to those who don't have too strong political leanings.

    By Blogger mezba, at 11:35 a.m.  

  • Mark me down as someone who thinks the ad will work. The Tories basically let the media and everybody else set Canadians up with all the talk of post-Christmas negative blitzs and such, so this isn't coming out of the blue.

    And the fact is, this is a negative ad ABOUT negative advertising! That's what they are attacking here. (Well, that and corruption, but who doesn't dislike corruption?)

    This isn't "Paul Martin's day care plan will be greatly overcost and ineffective for the majority of Canadian parents" or "Paul Martin's hand gun ban is an empty political gesture".

    Those may or may not have worked.

    I think this one does and like Kinsella said, it will have the other side second guessing, which is perfect.

    By Blogger The Hack, at 2:35 p.m.  

  • I would like to know what alternative universe Kinsella and all the rest of his "followers" are in who think this ad is a big deal. If it was so simple to inoculate yourself from negative ads don't you think that an ad of this nature would of been used before? I can't believe how simple minded the Harperites seem to be. IMHO Harper has peaked and Martin hasn't begun to fight yet. If Martin ends up losing to such a lame candidate as Harper then he will go down as perhaps the worst campaigner in history. BTW, using Kinsella as a barometer is pretty pathetic.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5:17 p.m.  

  • I nearly fell asleep while watching the newest Conservative ad. I actually don't remember what it was about, possibly because I was jabbing a pencil into my eye at the time. You can tell that the Torys are scared because they are trying to hit the Liberals before they've even done anything. The only good thing that I can say for this ad is that is doesn't contain Steven Harper, or horrible acting. I really don't think that this ad is going to help the Torys out in the polls, it might even hurt them.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5:58 p.m.  

  • anonymous posters have no cred...

    post a name you martinite hacks!

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 6:49 p.m.  

  • Good grief, Joe! How freakin' old are you anyway? 12? Or am I being too generous?

    "Psycho", I can tell you having read hundreds of his posts over the years, is an extremely dedicated Canadian working tirelessly for change over the last decade, be it for the Reform, CA, or CPC.

    He as has relentlessly opposed Liberal destruction and/or corruption of everything Canada stands for, whether it be our healthcare system, our military, our justice system, you name it.

    And he has opposed the denegration of western Canadians to the status of mere colonists in their own country.

    The Liberals have been an abomination upon everything Canada has ever stood for, and are systematically destroying the very fabric and backbone of this nation.

    IMHO, Jan. 23 is Judgement Day, in which we find out just what kind of country we have left.

    Either honesty, honor, truth, and freedom count...

    Or they don't.

    And if they don't, then so be it.

    And I'll be joining the separatists myself.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 8:46 p.m.  

  • Joe, go look up the definition of "zealotry"...or have a look in the mirror.

    My country, right or wrong, eh? Is that the best you have to offer me? Or to convince me?

    There was life before "Canada", and there will be life after "Canada".

    Either "Canada" serves the people, or it no longer has a valid raison d'etre, period.

    "Canada" is its people.

    If "Canadians" cannot even discern criminality, dishonor, and corruption, let alone decide that they should do something about it...

    Then I, for one, no longer want to be associated with that manifestation of "Canada".

    But I will not give up the "west", the people of which have opposed in greatest number this corruption of what it means to be a "Canadian" for decades now.

    Western Canada remains great, a place where honor, integrity, enterprize, and freedom empowers individual opportunity and achievement. A place where the true values that built Canada remain alive and vital and important.

    On Jan. 24 we will know the truth about "Canada".

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:21 p.m.  

  • Springer,

    "If "Canadians" cannot even discern criminality, dishonor, and corruption, let alone decide that they should do something about it..."

    JESUS... some of you Conservatives need to get off your F*CKING high horse... every person I know HATES that the CPC is socially conservative. If the CPC dropped ALL of their social conservatism we would have a completely different race... we aren't comparing two parties with identical policy... maybe some people HATE the CPC's vision of our country... CRAZY I KNOW.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:30 a.m.  

  • Every once in a while you see a first person comment that all Canadians should be aware of. Ex RCMP Bruce wants us to know this..

    Maz2:

    I was the RCMP officer responsible for establishing the Integrated Proceeds of Crime Units (the model for the IMET units) across the country in the early 90s. The federal DOJ was equally uncooperative, initially taking the funds allocated for staff lawyers but refusing to provide personnel. Even after providing some staff, all of the positions were generally never filled...usually we had 1 or perhaps 2 lawyers on staff when the budget called for 3.

    Overall my experience with federal DOJ lawyers, including those actually prosecuting cases, has been negative except for a few good lawyers who were exceptions to the DOJ rule. Most DOJ lawyers tend to be terrified to actually take a case to trial; they would usually prefer to make a deal with the defense for a guilty plea in exchange for a very lenient sentence.

    Our so-called justice system is a complete and utter mess. Example: On the last major case I handled before I took early retirement in disgust, I had to assign 14 of my investigators and 7 support staff to work for 18 months to satisfy the requirement to make full disclosure to the defense. This was AFTER the investigation was finished.

    Results: Of the roughly 140 persons arrested, the 40-odd persons charged in the US received lengthy prison sentences. Almost none of the Canadians convicted received prison time.

    Lesson learned: If you want to commit the perfect crime, do it in Canada.

    Most people don't realize that the overall crime rates in Canada are among the highest in the western world (nearly 30% higher than in the US); our police staffing levels, on a per capita basis, are extremely low relative to other countries; our rate of incarceration, per capita, is very low compared to most other countries.
    Posted by Bruce at March 19, 2006 02:12 PM

    And re-posted here by TG

    By Blogger TonyGuitar, at 4:10 p.m.  

  • The above begs the question..

    Was Paul Martin a Liberal or a fical Conservative.

    Is it short funding of the hospitals, the legal system and other public services that provided us with a surplus and solid pensions? Plus Liberal dipping funds?

    Short funding. That's a conservative modus operandi...eh?
    10words TG

    By Blogger TonyGuitar, at 4:16 p.m.  

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