Sunday, November 06, 2005

Blue Tide Rising

The full breakdown of the latest Allan Gregg poll is now on-line here.

I'll post more on this in the coming days, but for the time being I'm not as positive that we won't see an election call this year as some people. There are a lot of reasons for the NDP and Conservatives to pull the plug sometime over the next month and very few good reasons for them to wait.

9 Comments:

  • Obviously the NDP know the are not going to win an election. If an election was called now, and the conservatives gained enough power to form a minority government, then that would actually be a bad thing for the NDP, even though they would actually gain seats.

    Essentially, I think the NDP actually have something to lose if they go ahead with an election right now. Right now they have just enough seats, with the liberals, to have HUGE influence in parliament. If the liberals lose more than the NDP gains in an upcoming election, that balance of power shifts to the right. An NDPer obviously wants to gain mroe seats for their party, but not if that means a conservative government comes to power.

    SO... why wouldnt layton prop up the government.

    By Anonymous James, at 1:14 PM  

  • There is a sizable populations of liberals who wouldn't mind a short term minority Harper government so that they could get the party back on track. Trouble is whenever that feeling comes close enough to put Harper over the top, one of the CPC dorks wanders out, farts about abortion, SSM etc. and the libs are driven back, unhappily and reluctantly back into the fold.
    Right now a wave of discontentment has swept the country. But it is very, very fragile. It only takes one dumb comment or two to drive the electorate back into it's former stalemate, status quo.

    By Blogger Don, at 1:26 PM  

  • I agree with James - the NDP has plenty of reasons to want to prop up the government.

    Thats why I am surprised Layton didnt provide another shopping list to Martin rather then just the single issue of stopping private health care in Canada.

    He has as much leverage now as he did in May, despite the fact Harper and Duceppe can pull the plug whenever they want to. They keep insisting they wont bring the government down til the NDP is onside... so Layton has room to maneuver.

    I'd suggest he use it a little more efficiently then he has done so far.

    By Blogger Scott Tribe, at 2:57 PM  

  • The question the NDP has to answer is whether they ever want to replace the Liberals, or only ever be their conscience when there is a minority parliament. At the moment, these two objectives seem strongly opposed to each other. Now is the best chance to date to replace the Liberals, but the rise of the Bloc will make minority parliaments more common for a while. The thing is, though, how much leverage will the NDP ever have if it is never willing to pull the trigger? If they bring the government down now, and the next parliament is similar (ie, Liberal minority propped up by the NDP), then you'll really see Martin (or his successor) crawl.

    By Anonymous MarkC, at 4:21 PM  

  • The NDP have to keep the 1972-74 example in mind. David Lewis got labelled the 'best policy chair the Liberals ever had', and the NDP got burned in '74 for it.

    Layton is thinking, and obviously reasoning to important principles, as Ottawa Centre residents got a 4-question phone poll that could only have been paid for by the NDP.

    As for Don's point, I think he is bang on, except to say that there is also a sizable population of Liberals who want to strangle his iszable population of Liberals.

    Getting the party back on track is likely to be a very, very ugly process which will make people remember the Chretien-Turner skullduggery with fond nostalgia. There is a great well of bitterness and resentment in the Liberal Party right now, and it is most obvious here in Ottawa.

    By Blogger OttawaCon, at 9:14 PM  

  • Layton has this choice:
    1. an election now, with the same seat count, maybe more ('cuz he got screwed by the stop Harper tide last time), OR

    2. an election later, with the two risks of a. less seat by having either or both Martin/Harper rehabilitate his party, creating a strong Liberal vote or strong stop Harper vote and b. doing some subjective substantive good for the country by getting NPD policy passed (which might translate into seats, or go the way of '74).

    Insofar as the public is fickle, and Harper is going to get weaker, the only real element in the equation for Layton to evaluate is Martin's future strength. Which makes me think he'll go for an election now.

    By Blogger matt, at 11:39 PM  

  • "Trouble is whenever that feeling comes close enough to put Harper over the top, one of the CPC dorks wanders out, farts about abortion, SSM etc. and the libs are driven back, unhappily and reluctantly back into the fold."

    True enough.

    But from what I've seen what happens more often is that the Globe or the CBC manufacture a 'fart' and blast it all over their front page/newscast.

    I wonder if they can get away with that BS *again* in the upcoming election?

    By Anonymous groovy on granville, at 12:38 AM  

  • I echo Don's comments... I am sufficiently dis-satisfied to really not give a frack. Plus it would be nice to see SH and the rest of the Reform set fall flat on his face.

    Problem is, we (libs) are good at status quo governance. That's our downfall – too smooth, too slick, too slimy (look at Dingwall).

    And yeh, Ottawacon - Lewis got screwed, but so did the rest of us. Arguably, the NDP sponsored spending was responsible for the deficit spiral that began under Trudeau.

    I don't think Martin would allow that, but depends on how badly he wants to hold on.

    I was listening to redneck radio over the CBC strike, and Rutherford actually said something illuminating, which was this: Martin is a good no. 2 man. But not a no. 1 kinda guy. Which is a shame... I lunched with Martin back in his opposition days, and man, was I then impressed.

    But then again, so was I with Chretien. Bad judge of character?

    At least I'm a quick learner.

    .ted. is www.tblog.ca

    By Blogger Teddy, at 1:38 PM  

  • Blue tide ain't rising with comments like these

    http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1845&ncid=1845&e=9&u=/cpress/20051107/ca_pr_on_na/harper_poppy

    By Blogger Rocket_Dawg, at 7:22 PM  

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